As an unpublished writer, are my chances of getting a book published zero?

How I love your blog. And now I have rustled up the courage, aided by a really great blondie, to ask (and forgive me if you've answered this already): As an unpublished writer (my day job is a ghost blogger and copywriter), are my chances of getting a book published zero? I have read and heard so many conflicting reports!

Thanks! And no need for liquid courage (however delicious).

The great thing about writing fiction is that it is, in many ways, an even playing field: everyone wants that great debut novel (in many cases, debut novelists have better chances than second-time novelists--keep in mind I'm talking about work published, not work written, here); you don't need a platform; you don't need to be famous; you don't need to be wealthy (you just need enough to support yourself while you write); you don't need an MFA or even a college degree; you don't need tons of experience related to your topic, a built-in audience, or a proven track record; connections (someone who knows an agent/editor) are wholly unnecessary;  tickets to a conference are nice (but expensive!) and won't give you that much of an edge--you don't even need a name that sounds writerly.

You could, in other words, live somewhere trendy like a major city or pretty and tiny in the middle of the country; you could live on your local, suburban Wisteria lane; you could live alone or with a roommate or twelve or have a large family or be a single mother or father; you could have a trust fund or field collection calls daily; you could have a neat desk job or something that has you coming home covered in tar/chimney soot/blood (if you're a butcher/surgeon--not, I hope, a serial killer) and spend your time however you like--so long as you make time to write, and have a computer with an internet connection.

And for you in particular, having a day job as a ghost blogger and copywriter will only help: it proves people are willing to pay for your writing. Same with a great "italicized section" (the part of your query where you mention other publications that have published your work). It's like having a full resume--it means others were willing to trust you and so, by "I am an agent sheep" logic, the agent will be willing to trust you, too. But will not jump off a cliff if everyone else does. I hope.

But those are extras. You don't need them.

What do you need? The ability to write really, really, really well.

And a great query, a great first page, and The Jeff Herman Guide. Or another  method of finding agents who are likely to be a good fit.

Let me put it this way: the top .0001 percent will have no trouble, even if we do go down to one CEO, two editors, and ten e-books a year.

The top .001 and .01 and .1 percents need to have business savvy and aforementioned great query. Luck doesn't hurt; you'll want to hit the right agent at the right time (preferably not right after he/she has signed something too similar).

Of course we can't quantify the worth of each piece objectively, but I think we can agree that the large numbers of books about the author's ordinary cat, about the author being abducted by aliens (a straight-faced memoir--with poor grammar), the ten-millionth unoriginal vampire book, and books that abuse the English language as badly as I've just abused math (apparently, saying ".0001 percent," instead of "one in a million" will get one shot by most mathematicians--thanks, Dad!) will be found, if brought before a jury of 1,000 writing peers, not as worthy as an exciting debut novel.

In fact, I bet that, if I were to present 100 of you with 50 queries, you'd end up voting on the same ten as being the best.

Now. I do wish I could show you what goes on in my head while figuring out which queries are a yes, and which are a no. I'm in discussions with a certain online conference about having a query chat. I'll keep you updated.